From Mammoth Steppe to Model Uncertainty: The Role of Paleo-informed Initial Conditions on Parameter- and Structural-based Arctic Ecosystem Model Uncertainty

Much of the Arctic permafrost is left over from the end of the last glacial maximum and - while stable under pre-industrial conditions - but would not have been created without the last ice age. Considering the paleo history for initial conditions in modeling is important to reduce uncertainties.

Tundra Fires and post-fire Ecosystem Dynamics in a process-based Ecosystem Model

Tundra fires have historically been very infrequent and in some areas almost absent. As they are becoming more frequent, Arctic ecosystem models need to (better) represent and evaluate their effects.

Reducing uncertainty of high-latitude ecosystem models through identification of key parameters

Structural- and parameter-based uncertainty are one of the most important sources of overall model uncertainty, but reducing one often increases the other. A causal network approach can help to assess their combined impact.